Our PI, Megan Crawford, offers an overview of the field of scenario planning through her comprehensive typology.
Scenario Planning
Crawford, M. M. & Wright, G. (Eds, 2025). Improving and Enhancing Scenario Planning: Futures Thinking. Edward Elgar Publishing. scenarios.farhub.org
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Crawford, M. M. & Plant-O-toole, P. (2023). A review of strategic planning for dynamic supply chains: Preparing for uncertainty using scenarios, Futures and Foresight Science. 5:e167. DOI: 10.1002/ffo2.167
Crawford, M. M. & Wright, G. (2022). The value of mass-produced COVID-19 scenarios: A quality evaluation of development processes and scenario content, Technological Forecasting and Social Change. 183:121937. DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2022.121937
Crawford, M. M. (2019). A comprehensive scenario intervention typology, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 149:119748. DOI:10.1016/j.techfore.2019.119748
Delphi
Crawford, M. M., Wright, G., et al (forthcoming). The mediating effects of Delphi feedback complexity and accuracy on opinion change.
Bolger, F., Rowe, G., Hamlin, I., Belton, I., Crawford, M., et al (2023). Virtuous opinion change in structured groups, Judgment and Decision Making, 18:e25 1–3. DOI:10.1017/jdm.2023.22
Belton, I., Wright, G., Sissons, A., Bolger, F., Crawford, M. M., et al (2021). Delphi with feedback of rationales: How large can a Delphi group be such that participants are not overloaded, de-motivated, or disengaged? Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 170, 120897. DOI:10.1016/j.techfore.2021.120897
Hamlin, I., Bolger, F., Vasilichi, A., Belton, I., Crawford, M. M., Sissons, A., et al (2021). Structured groups make more accurate veracity judgements than individuals, Applied Cognitive Psychology, 35 (6), 1600-1607. DOI:10.1002/acp.3892
Bryson, S., Grime, M. M., Murthy, A. & Wright, G. (2017). Behavioural issues in the practical application of scenario thinking: Cognitive biases, effective group facilitation, and overcoming business-as-usual thinking, In Kunc, M., Malpass, J. & White, L. (eds.). Behavioural Operational Research: Theory, Methodology and Practice.
